After many years of negotiation, on July 18, 2015 an agreement limiting nuclear capability and technology—the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the JCPOA, often just called the Iran Agreement—was concluded between Iran and P5+1, the United States, Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China. It was in actuality an agreement between the United Nations Security Council, represented by the P5+1 with Iran as to what Iran must do to restore itself as a compliant party to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and to return to being a full-fledge member of the world community. It was approved by 15 to 0 vote in Security Council, the United States (of course) voting in the affirmative like all other members of the Council. It entered into force ninety days later on October 18, 2015. The obligation under the Agreement of the United States was to lift its economic sanctions against Iran in phases as provided for in the Agreement. Of course, the agreement was not perfect but, it was nevertheless a tour de force which largely cut back Iran’s capability to build a nuclear weapon and came with broad, highly intrusive verification and monitoring obligations from which it would be impossible to break out without immediate detection and nearly immediate return of a very harsh sanctions environment. The Agreement could never be resurrected if it did not survive.
When the Agreement entered into force, the period of time in which Iran could break out and build a nuclear weapon increased from a few weeks to 10-12 months. One of the preambular paragraphs read, “Iran reaffirms that under no circumstances will Iran ever seek, develop or acquire nuclear weapons.” No other country in the world has ever made such an unequivocal and unconditional commitment. The Agreement reaffirmed American world leadership. Second, the JCPOA places well defined time limits on Iran’s nuclear weapon program of ten to fifteen years, immeasurably enhancing confidence during the Agreement’s term that Iran will not seek or acquire a nuclear weapon. Third, it provides the basis for transparency of procurement and verification of nuclear activities so that the International Atomic Energy Agency—inspecting on 24/7/365 basis—can determine whether Iran’s program is exclusively peaceful.
Then, Donald Trump was elected and early on announced that he would withdraw from the Iran Agreement and reinstate US sanctions. The following year Mike Pompeo was appointed the Secretary of State and the U.S. announced its withdrawal on May 18, 2018. There was talk of regime change. Trump and Pompeo had no alternate plan, of course, just get tough with Iran. The Europeans tried to keep it going but the U.S. put secondary sanctions on European companies that did business with Iran so that effort soon failed. The U.S. had no plan, no policy. Republicans seem to like that; the Bush Administration took us into Iraq with no plan. The result was catastrophe. It seemed that might be the case here and as of today that is what it is: China has signed a huge cooperation agreement with Iran. There will be increased military cooperation and joint military training.
China will likely still help Iran with its alleged nuclear weapon arrangement with North Korea. In 2013 the London Times reported that one of the leaders of the Iran nuclear weapon program was in attendance at the third North Korean test. There were indications that Iran had an agreement with North Korea for them to supply nuclear warheads to Iran in a crisis. This North Korean test was to demonstrate the compatibility of Iran’s mainstay missile, the Shahab-3, with the North Korean mainstay medium range missile. The test was successful. Iran’s mainstay missile is compatible with North Korean nuclear weapons. The Iranian official apparently traveled to and from North Korea across China.
China also will build free trade zones in Iran and the Persian Gulf and two ports on the Gulf of Oman near to the Straits of Hormuz. Iran will also be provided with a 5G network, high speed rail and airports. The total of the investment over time will be $400 billion.
This is a strategic disaster of the first magnitude. Iran will be able to dominate the Middle East with China’s help. This foolish policy of ours has driven Iran straight into the arms of China at great cost to the United States.
The Founders would have taken a dim view of such a misguided and reckless policy that the United States has pursued.
“Observe good faith and justice toward all nations, cultivate peace and harmony with all…” – George Washington, 1796
“Tis our true policy to steer clear of permanent alliances, with any portion of the foreign world: so far, I mean, as we are now at liberty to do it; for let me not be understood as capable of patronizing infidelity to existing engagements.” – George Washington, 1796
“The natural cure for an ill administration in a popular or representative constitution is a change of men.” – Alexander Hamilton, 1788
John Jay