According to reporting by the New York Times, last November, former President Biden said that he was concerned that as President Trump’s political situation worsens he may become increasingly erratic and prone to do anything to hold onto the office. After all, it appears that the only thing that protects him from criminal indictment in New York because of his many crimes is holding the office of the presidency.
In January, Mr. Biden commented, “He still has another nine or ten months, God knows what can happen.” And just a few days ago, Biden upped the stakes a bit and said that Trump might try to postpone or disrupt the election. “Mark my words, I think he is going to try to kick back the election somehow, come up with some rationale why it can’t be held.”
The polls have turned sharply against Trump in recent weeks indicating that Biden could be likely to win in November and win decisively. This is in the wake of President Trump’s almost unbelievably bad mismanagement of the huge crisis created by the COVID-19 pandemic and associated economic downturn. The month of April, 2020 has been one of the worst in American history with a death total approaching that of the Vietnam War. Trump has now confirmed beyond a doubt that he lacks the ability to lead the United States in a crisis much less hold the office of the presidency. It is now clear that it is dangerous to have him sitting in the Oval Office, especially at this time, but really at any time.
But he has no power to delay the election. It is by law held on the first Tuesday after the first Monday of November. It has been held on this date since 1845, to change the date would require an Act of Congress, legislation that would be highly unlikely to be approved by the House of Representatives, and probably not the Senate either. And the Constitution requires the new Congress to be seated on January 3, 2021 and the new President sworn in by January 20.
But the President can try to disrupt the election, make it as difficult to vote as possible and thereby increase his chances. These efforts have been underway for some time. They include adoption by Republican legislatures of voter ID laws, of greater and greater difficulty to meet. More recently Trump has been attempting to undermine voting by mail, which has been in use in this country for nearly 30 years. Trump has denounced it as encouraging fraud which has, of course, no basis in fact. It is the best way to vote during an epidemic. Democrats in the Congress are seeking legislation by the Congress protecting those states that wish to use it. As a result of this and other efforts in the states to oppose voter suppression, this tactic appears at the time to be unlikely to benefit Trump very much. The national opposition to him is now much too strong. Americans have a long history of non-partisan action when the survival or essential well being of the country is recognized to be at stake, as it is now.
So, perhaps Biden is likely to win, what comes next from Trump? In thinking about this, we should turn to the testimony before Congress of Trump’s former lawyer and close advisor, Michael Cohen.
In testimony before the House Committee on Oversight and Reform in February of 2019, Cohen stated at the end of his day long testimony a sort of a coda:
“Indeed, given my experience working for him, Trump, I fear that if he loses the election in 2020 that there never will be a peaceful transition of power, and that is why I agreed to appear before you today.”
We should all heed Mr. Cohen’s words. He probably knows him better than anyone. He was Trump’s personal attorney and so-called “fixer” for ten years. This was the first time that anyone who worked closely with Trump has publicly cast doubt on whether Trump having lost an election, would carry out probably the most fundamental act of this democracy, or any democracy and peacefully transfer the power of the presidency to his opponent.
It has been reported that nationwide, right-wing conservative groups and individuals have been buying guns at a high rate. The possibility of some kind of violence to stop the transfer of power from President Trump to Vice-President Biden cannot be completely ruled out. There are seven weeks between election day and Inauguration Day. Governors and their staffs and the leaders of various state National Guards should be alert, prepared and in touch during this period and perhaps before. American democracy could be at stake.
Our Founders understood this problem well. Here are a few comments.
“The liberties of our country, the freedom of our civil Constitution are worth defending at all hazards; and it is our duty to defend them against all attacks.” Samuel Adams, 1771
“If there be a principle that ought not to be questioned in the United States, it is, that every man has a right to abolish an old government and establish a new one. This principle is not only recorded in every public archive…written in every American heart, and sealed with the blood of American martyrs, but is the only lawful tenure by which the United States hold their existence as a nation. James Madison, 1793
John Jay