President Trump, to say the least, has badly mishandled the coronavirus pandemic and the American economy at the same. After a general weakening, by self-serving actions like the unfunded tax cut for the top one percent, of the strong recovery from the Great Recession bequeathed to him, our economy was vulnerable. Then when the pandemic, predicted by the World Health Organization and warned by the American Intelligence Community arrived on our shores in early January, 2020 and perhaps before undetected, for over two months, Trump ignored it and told the American people it was like the flu and would go away. Then when it was undeniable, Trump was forced to recognize it and agree to the emergency protective measures developed by the scientific and medical communities. These measures initially saved thousands of lives but also caused the economy to crash. The death toll is nearing 100,000 only two months later. Models now show that if these measures had been adopted just one week earlier 36,000 lives would have been saved.
Trump was fearful that the severely depressed economy must be restarted promptly or his reelection prospects could be severely damaged. He therefore began pushing for a prompt termination of the medical protective measures and reopening of the economy as early as mid-April regardless of the human cost. But what he doesn’t seem to understand, that a sound economic policy and a sound healthcare policy are not opposite to one another, they are not the two ends of a spectrum, other countries have dealt with the pandemic and brought it under reasonable control without significant economic damage.
Trump and his allies forced a reopening with none of the major health goals achieved: significant downturn in new COVID-19 cases, widespread effective testing and a broad contacts program. But here the United States is with five percent of the world population and nearly 30 percent of the worldwide COVID-19 cases coupled with an economy rivaled only by the Great Depression of the late 1920s and early 1930s. This is all because of a complete misunderstanding of the relationship of the pandemic and the economy; enormous incompetence, almost unrivaled in the history of the American presidency, and a total lack of empathy for the American people and a focus entirely upon himself. The brilliant Harvard economist, Jeffrey Sachs, said it well in his commentary of May 18, 2020:
“The fantasist promotes magical thinking, and perhaps even believes it himself. Trump said that the virus wasn’t a threat. He said that it would go away by April. He said that it was fully under control. He said in March that we have all of the testing we need.
“The epidemic is controllable when government is serious. Australia, China, Japan, South Korea, New Zealand, and Taiwan, among others, all have kept deaths below 10 per million population, compared with 271 per million in the United States. Those other countries implemented public health policies at national scale; the US did not.
“With US reported COVID-19 deaths nearing 90,000–and almost certainly higher based on a comparison of deaths this year and last year–Trump now tries to discredit the death count. In Trump’s fantasy world, there are no deaths if they are not reported.
“Trump’s maneuverings also won’t save the economy, which is in a free fall. States can open now and thereby spread more disease and death. But again, economic fantasy won’t replace reality. Consumers will not suddenly start buying. Builders will not suddenly build buildings when so many stand to be empty or underutilized. Some of Trump’s followers may head to crowded places–and if so, many will contract the virus — but most Americans will not.
“Of the record 20.5 million jobs lost in April, most will not come back any time soon, whether or not states declare their economies open. The continued spread of the virus itself will block any meaningful rapid recovery. So too will deep structural changes that will cause a significant, albeit unknowable, proportion of today’s job losses to be permanent.”
What to do about this? Here again, Jeffrey Sachs:
“For all this we need a new administration and Congress and a new approach for our nation. Trump’s fantasy world is our nightmare. Hang tight. A new dawn is coming.”
Our Founders would not have a different view:
“If there be a principle which ought not to be questioned within the United States, it is that every man has the right to abolish an old government and establish a new one. This principle is not only recorded in every public archive, written in every American heart, and sealed with the blood of American martyrs, but it is the only lawful tenure by which the United States hold their existence as a nation.” –James Madison 1793
“The natural cure for an ill administration in a popular or representative constitution is a change of men.” –Alexander Hamilton 1787
“If ever the time should come, when vain and aspiring men shall possess the highest seats in government, our country will stand in need of its experienced Patriots to prevent its ruin.” –Samuel Adams 1780
John Jay