The Internal Research Agency (IRA) is an organization based in St. Petersburg, which heads up much of the electronic warfare carried out by the Kremlin against the United States pursuant to President Putin’s direct orders. It is focused on elections although it has other assignments. It is the heir to a proud Russian/Soviet tradition. In early Soviet times, it was believed by the Moscow leadership that world revolution, later Soviet world dominance, could be effectively pursued through psychological warfare and deception. The task of carrying out this plan was given to the Soviet secret intelligence and espionage organization, successor to the one that existed under the Czars, which after several name changes became known to the West as the KGB. This new assignment was known within the KGB as Active Measures. It forged letters, threatened violence and fomented conspiracies as part of its worldwide disinformation campaign, which took its place alongside KGB programs of intelligence collection and violence. The IRA brought the program of Active Measures to the digital age for Russia.
In 2016, Russia, working largely through the IRA did a trial run in the American elections. Russians thought that by exploiting social media along with other measures, they could try to discredit what they expected to be Hillary Clinton’s victory. But it turned out their favored candidate, Donald Trump was the winner. In the June 2020 issue of the Atlantic magazine, Franklin Foer writes that the IRA has had a long-term hashtag for this exercise in America which they planned to promote again in 2020 and, unlike 2016, perhaps try to push it to the limit. The hashtag is called ominously, Democracy RIP. Foer notes that “Vladimir Putin dreams of discrediting the American democratic system, and he will never have a more reliable ally than Donald Trump. A democracy can’t defend itself if it can’t honestly describe the attacks against it. But the president hasn’t just undermined his own country’s defenses—he has actively abetted the adversary’s efforts.” And his partner in all this, is Senator Mitch McConnell, the Majority Republican Leader of the Senate. In his opposition to legislation providing money to the states to upgrade their defenses for voting infrastructure around the country he earned himself in the Senate the nickname “Moscow Mitch”. Further, the Republican majority in the Supreme Court made all of this much easier, opening the door to Russia to effectively pursue #Democracy RIP, by its Citizens United case. This decision largely removed any enforceable limitations on foreigners subsidizing American politicians by means of anonymous shell companies.
This Russian operation combined with a degree of incompetence and lassitude has led to a situation where American voting systems are not significantly more secure today than they were in 2016. Some states now have formidable defenses, but many have defenses that a talented teenager could penetrate. And Russia in 2020 will be far more effective and capable than they were in 2016, having four years to develop and prepare.
In fact Russia need not do all that much to create a situation of chaos which could be exploited by a well-armed far right. It was not clear who won the election; into that breach could step the professional conspiracy theorists and their well-armed radical supporters. Those latter would be more or less, the same individuals who have provided armed opposition to approved medical measures, such as masks, to inhibit individuals from infecting others during the pandemic based on the bogus argument that, somehow, they are a restraint on liberty.
It was not initially understood how widespread the Russian attack in 2016 was. In 2017, the Department of Homeland Security said that 21 states had been attacked; in 2019, a Senate Report stated it had been all 50. Having pushed so widely in 2016 and being far more capable now, the IRA could launch a devastating assault on our electoral system and not leave a trace. U.S. defense systems remain sufficiently weak in many places which could permit the creation of chaos everywhere, Russia would only need to do a few things, they could meddle with voter registration databases, which in a number of places are not protected well at all. For example, they could change addresses or switch pictures between individual voters to create broad confusion at the polls. In 2018 Russia switched the addresses of a number of potential Illinois voters from Illinois to Moscow. Or they may go all out and try to make #Democracy RIP a reality. They could purge voters from the rolls and change votes in large numbers. Fake statements could be placed on the internet early in the day on November 3 which could generate violence. And while Russia prefers a Trump victory so he can continue to apply his wrecking ball to American society, likely what they might aim towards would be a very narrow loss by Trump. This could be violently contested by Trump followers if he, as he probably would do, refused to accept defeat. His lawyer, Michael Cohen warned in 2019 in addressing a Congressional Committee before he left for prison: “If Mr. Trump loses the election, knowing him as I do, there will not be a peaceful transfer of power.” This is the outcome that Moscow would most prefer, widespread violence and collapse of orderly society.
A similar theme was focused upon by Roger Cohen in the New York Times on May 15, 2020. He notes how the foolish conflict originating in the extreme right over safety measures to control the pandemic is even further tearing our society apart. No middle ground between the two sides exists as usual, the virus is either all destructive of everything before it or it is a myth. “Nobody foresaw what a pathogen one-thousandth the width of any eyelash could trigger in a society where truth itself has been obliterated by President Trump, day after lying day.” And he points out that when Time Magazine asked Jared Kushner if he would be willing to commit to the holding of the November 3 election, he replied, “I’m not sure I can commit one way or the other, but right now that’s the plan.”
One can imagine how the pandemic could be used as an excuse for indefinitely delaying the election; this would be not only a violation of law—the election date—but the Constitution itself specifies that the new Congress must be sworn in by January 3, 2021 (unless the Congress by law provides an alternative date) and the President for the new term by January 20, 2021. “But after all the people’s health must come first.” it might be argued. Or if Trump is defeated, as said, he might simply refuse to accept defeat and his supporters armed with guns in hand, could flock to defend him.
Cohen in his article cites a comment by a friend that he refers to as a “liberal”: “No wonder Republicans are laughing at us. The billionaire politicians have complete control (besides the military at this point), no oversight, and most of their constituents are armed, some heavily, and ready to defend them. Roll over and die? What the hell? Time to even things up. To save this country. Hopefully, guns will always be a deterrent, but they may be our last hope to save this country. Time to gun up, liberals!” A huge majority of the country opposes President Trump and wants him to depart the White House; how far most of them might go in defending their electoral decision is uncertain.
What advice would our Founders have for this situation?
“Nothing was more to be desired than that every practical obstacle should be opposed to cabal, intrigue and corruption. These more deadly adversaries of Republican government might naturally have been expected to make their approaches from more than one quarter, but chiefly from the desire in foreign powers to gain an improper ascendant in our own councils. How would they better gratify this than by raising a creature of their own to the chief magistray of the Union?”–Alexander Hamilton 1788
“A government of laws, and not by men.”–John Adams 1780
“If it were to be asked, what is the most sacred duty and the greatest source of our security in a Republic? The answer would be, an inviolable respect for the Constitution and Laws—the first growing out of the last…a sacred respect for the constitutional law is the vital principle, the sustaining energy of a free government.”–Alexander Hamilton 1794
“The liberties of our country, the freedom of our civil Constitution are worth defending at all hazards, and it is our duty to defend them against all attacks… Let us remember that if we suffer tamely a lawless attack upon our liberty, we encourage it, and involve others in our doom! It is a very serious consideration, which should deeply impress our minds, that millions yet unborn may be the miserable sharers in the event.”–Samuel Adams 1771
Let us hope it never comes to this. Peace and the rule of law are always preferable to violence as long as liberty is secure.
John Jay