Month: May 2020

President Trump, to say the least, has badly mishandled the coronavirus pandemic and the American economy at the same. After a general weakening, by self-serving actions like the unfunded tax cut for the top one percent, of the strong recovery from the Great Recession bequeathed to him, our economy was vulnerable. Then when the pandemic, predicted by the World Health Organization and warned by the American Intelligence Community arrived on our shores in early January, 2020 and perhaps before undetected, for over two months, Trump ignored it and told the American people it was like the flu and would go away. Then when it was undeniable, Trump was forced to recognize it and agree to the emergency protective measures developed by the scientific and medical communities. These measures initially saved thousands of lives but also caused the economy to crash. The death toll is nearing 100,000 only two months later. Models now show that if these measures had been adopted just one week earlier 36,000 lives would have been saved.

Trump was fearful that the severely depressed economy must be restarted promptly or his reelection prospects could be severely damaged. He therefore began pushing for a prompt termination of the medical protective measures and reopening of the economy as early as mid-April regardless of the human cost. But what he doesn’t seem to understand, that a sound economic policy and a sound healthcare policy are not opposite to one another, they are not the two ends of a spectrum, other countries have dealt with the pandemic and brought it under reasonable control without significant economic damage.

Trump and his allies forced a reopening with none of the major health goals achieved: significant downturn in new COVID-19 cases, widespread effective testing and a broad contacts program. But here the United States is with five percent of the world population and nearly 30 percent of the worldwide COVID-19 cases coupled with an economy rivaled only by the Great Depression of the late 1920s and early 1930s. This is all because of a complete misunderstanding of the relationship of the pandemic and the economy; enormous incompetence, almost unrivaled in the history of the American presidency, and a total lack of empathy for the American people and a focus entirely upon himself. The brilliant Harvard economist, Jeffrey Sachs, said it well in his commentary of May 18, 2020:

“The fantasist promotes magical thinking, and perhaps even believes it himself. Trump said that the virus wasn’t a threat. He said that it would go away by April. He said that it was fully under control. He said in March that we have all of the testing we need.

“The epidemic is controllable when government is serious. Australia, China, Japan, South Korea, New Zealand, and Taiwan, among others, all have kept deaths below 10 per million population, compared with 271 per million in the United States. Those other countries implemented public health policies at national scale; the US did not.

“With US reported COVID-19 deaths nearing 90,000–and almost certainly higher based on a comparison of deaths this year and last year–Trump now tries to discredit the death count. In Trump’s fantasy world, there are no deaths if they are not reported.

“Trump’s maneuverings also won’t save the economy, which is in a free fall. States can open now and thereby spread more disease and death. But again, economic fantasy won’t replace reality. Consumers will not suddenly start buying. Builders will not suddenly build buildings when so many stand to be empty or underutilized. Some of Trump’s followers may head to crowded places–and if so, many will contract the virus — but most Americans will not.

“Of the record 20.5 million jobs lost in April, most will not come back any time soon, whether or not states declare their economies open. The continued spread of the virus itself will block any meaningful rapid recovery. So too will deep structural changes that will cause a significant, albeit unknowable, proportion of today’s job losses to be permanent.”

What to do about this? Here again, Jeffrey Sachs:

“For all this we need a new administration and Congress and a new approach for our nation. Trump’s fantasy world is our nightmare. Hang tight. A new dawn is coming.”

Our Founders would not have a different view:

“If there be a principle which ought not to be questioned within the United States, it is that every man has the right to abolish an old government and establish a new one. This principle is not only recorded in every public archive, written in every American heart, and sealed with the blood of American martyrs, but it is the only lawful tenure by which the United States hold their existence as a nation.”  –James Madison 1793

“The natural cure for an ill administration in a popular or representative constitution is a change of men.”  –Alexander Hamilton 1787

“If ever the time should come, when vain and aspiring men shall possess the highest seats in government, our country will stand in need of its experienced Patriots to prevent its ruin.”  –Samuel Adams 1780

John Jay

The Internal Research Agency (IRA) is an organization based in St. Petersburg, which heads up much of the electronic warfare carried out by the Kremlin against the United States pursuant to President Putin’s direct orders. It is focused on elections although it has other assignments. It is the heir to a proud Russian/Soviet tradition. In early Soviet times, it was believed by the Moscow leadership that world revolution, later Soviet world dominance, could be effectively pursued through psychological warfare and deception. The task of carrying out this plan was given to the Soviet secret intelligence and espionage organization, successor to the one that existed under the Czars, which after several name changes became known to the West as the KGB. This new assignment was known within the KGB as Active Measures. It forged letters, threatened violence and fomented conspiracies as part of its worldwide disinformation campaign, which took its place alongside KGB programs of intelligence collection and violence. The IRA brought the program of Active Measures to the digital age for Russia.

In 2016, Russia, working largely through the IRA did a trial run in the American elections. Russians thought that by exploiting social media along with other measures, they could try to discredit what they expected to be Hillary Clinton’s victory. But it turned out their favored candidate, Donald Trump was the winner.  In the June 2020 issue of the Atlantic magazine, Franklin Foer writes that the IRA has had a long-term hashtag for this exercise in America which they planned to promote again in 2020 and, unlike 2016, perhaps try to push it to the limit.  The hashtag is called ominously, Democracy RIP. Foer notes that “Vladimir Putin dreams of discrediting the American democratic system, and he will never have a more reliable ally than Donald Trump. A democracy can’t defend itself if it can’t honestly describe the attacks against it. But the president hasn’t just undermined his own country’s defenses—he has actively abetted the adversary’s efforts.” And his partner in all this, is Senator Mitch McConnell, the Majority Republican Leader of the Senate. In his opposition to legislation providing money to the states to upgrade their defenses for voting infrastructure around the country he earned himself in the Senate the nickname “Moscow Mitch”. Further, the Republican majority in the Supreme Court made all of this much easier, opening the door to Russia to effectively pursue #Democracy RIP, by its Citizens United case. This decision largely removed any enforceable limitations on foreigners subsidizing American politicians by means of anonymous shell companies.

This Russian operation combined with a degree of incompetence and lassitude has led to a situation where American voting systems are not significantly more secure today than they were in 2016. Some states now have formidable defenses, but many have defenses that a talented teenager could penetrate.  And Russia in 2020 will be far more effective and capable than they were in 2016, having four years to develop and prepare.

In fact Russia need not do all that much to create a situation of chaos which could be exploited by a well-armed far right. It was not clear who won the election; into that breach could step the professional conspiracy theorists and their well-armed radical supporters. Those latter would be more or less, the same individuals who have provided armed opposition to approved medical measures, such as masks, to inhibit individuals from infecting others during the pandemic based on the bogus argument that, somehow, they are a restraint on liberty.

It was not initially understood how widespread the Russian attack in 2016 was. In 2017, the Department of Homeland Security said that 21 states had been attacked; in 2019, a Senate Report stated it had been all 50. Having pushed so widely in 2016 and being far more capable now, the IRA could launch a devastating assault on our electoral system and not leave a trace. U.S. defense systems remain sufficiently weak in many places which could permit the creation of chaos everywhere, Russia would only need to do a few things, they could meddle with voter registration databases, which in a number of places are not protected well at all. For example,  they could change addresses or switch pictures between individual voters to create broad confusion at the polls. In 2018 Russia switched the addresses of a number of potential Illinois voters from Illinois to Moscow. Or they may go all out and try to make #Democracy RIP a reality. They could purge voters from the rolls and change votes in large numbers. Fake statements could be placed on the internet early in the day on November 3 which could generate violence. And while Russia prefers a Trump victory so he can continue to apply his wrecking ball to American society, likely what they might aim towards would be a very narrow loss by Trump. This could be violently contested by Trump followers if he, as he probably would do, refused to accept defeat. His lawyer, Michael Cohen warned in 2019 in addressing a Congressional Committee before he left for prison: “If Mr. Trump loses the election, knowing him as I do, there will not be a peaceful transfer of power.” This is the outcome that Moscow would most prefer, widespread violence and collapse of orderly society.

A similar theme was focused upon by Roger Cohen in the New York Times on May 15, 2020. He notes how the foolish conflict originating in the extreme right over safety measures to control the pandemic is even further tearing our society apart. No middle ground between the two sides exists as usual, the virus is either all destructive of everything before it or it is a myth. “Nobody foresaw what a pathogen one-thousandth the width of any eyelash could trigger in a society where truth itself has been obliterated by President Trump, day after lying day.” And he points out that when Time Magazine asked Jared Kushner if he would be willing to commit to the holding of the November 3 election, he replied, “I’m not sure I can commit one way or the other, but right now that’s the plan.”

One can imagine how the pandemic could be used as an excuse for indefinitely delaying the election; this would be not only a violation of law—the election date—but the Constitution itself specifies that the new Congress must be sworn in by January 3, 2021 (unless the Congress by law provides an alternative date) and the President for the new term by January 20, 2021. “But after all the people’s health must come first.” it might be argued. Or if Trump is defeated, as said, he might simply refuse to accept defeat and his supporters armed with guns in hand, could flock to defend him.

Cohen in his article cites a comment by a friend that he refers to as a “liberal”: “No wonder Republicans are laughing at us. The billionaire politicians have complete control (besides the military at this point), no oversight, and most of their constituents are armed, some heavily, and ready to defend them. Roll over and die? What the hell? Time to even things up. To save this country. Hopefully, guns will always be a deterrent, but they may be our last hope to save this country. Time to gun up, liberals!” A huge majority of the country opposes President Trump and wants him to depart the White House; how far most of them might go in defending their electoral decision is uncertain.

What advice would our Founders have for this situation?

“Nothing was more to be desired than that every practical obstacle should be opposed to cabal, intrigue and corruption. These more deadly adversaries of Republican government might naturally have been expected to make their approaches from more than one quarter, but chiefly from the desire in foreign powers to gain an improper ascendant  in our own councils. How would they better gratify this than by raising a creature of their own to the chief magistray of the Union?”–Alexander Hamilton 1788

“A government of laws, and not by men.”–John Adams 1780

“If it were to be asked, what is the most sacred duty and the greatest source of our security in a Republic? The answer would be, an inviolable respect for the Constitution and Laws—the first growing out of the last…a sacred respect for the constitutional law is the vital principle, the sustaining energy of a free government.”–Alexander Hamilton 1794

“The liberties of our country, the freedom of our civil Constitution are worth defending at all hazards, and it is our duty to defend them against all attacks… Let us remember that if we suffer tamely a lawless attack upon our liberty, we encourage it, and involve others in our doom! It is a very serious consideration, which should deeply impress our minds, that millions yet unborn may be the miserable sharers in the event.”–Samuel Adams 1771

Let us hope it never comes to this. Peace and the rule of law are always preferable to violence as long as liberty is secure.

John Jay